“The production and sales of China’s instrumentation industry fluctuated from the low point of the beginning of the year, and it has been stable in the medium-speed growth zone (15%~20%). It is estimated that the annual growth rate of production and sales will reach about 18%.” On August 23, the honorary chairman of the China Instrument and Meter Industry Association, Jia Jiacheng, told the reporter.
He said that if there is no sudden major fluctuation in the macro economy, the major economic indicators of the instrumentation industry this year can reach the target at the beginning of the year, and the profit growth is expected to be slightly lower. Below 13%, the year-on-year growth rate of imports will remain at around 5%, and the growth rate will still reach 18%. The import and export deficit is expected to decline slightly, at around US$15 billion.
The steady profit of production and sales has turned negative. At the beginning of the year, due to the macroeconomic impact, the production and sales of the instrumentation industry decreased by 12.8% and 14.1% respectively, but 3 The month rebounded markedly, and the month-on-month decline in April, steadily rising in May and June. The year-on-year growth rate was steady at around 17% for three consecutive months, entering the medium-speed growth zone of the industry in the range of 15%~20% expected at the beginning of the year.
He analyzed the reporter’s analysis that the growth rate of production and sales in the whole industry is not high, which is mainly due to the industry demand for industrial automatic control devices that account for more than one-third of the industry. The impact of the weak, its growth rate in the first half of the year is 3 to 4 percentage points lower than the industry average, while scientific instruments such as analytical instruments and experimental equipment still maintain a growth rate of more than 20%.
It is reported that due to industry characteristics, the instrumentation industry in the past 12 sub-sectors of the machinery industry, the growth rate of production and sales is generally in the seventh and eighth places. In the first half of this year, it was temporarily ranked in the top three, which was second only to the agricultural machinery industry supported by policy concessions.
“This shows that although the instrumentation industry is also affected by the weak domestic and international economy, the impact is less, and overcapacity is not like some industries. As serious as this, under the guidance of the country’s vigorous revitalization of high-tech industries, the instrumentation industry has great potential and prospects for development.” Yan Jiacheng said.
Industry profit at the beginning of the year increased by -14%, lower than -13% in January-February 2009, which is called the low point of this century, but Then the economic benefits gradually improved from the low point at the beginning of the year. In this regard, Yan Jiacheng said that the main reason is that the hard cost of raw materials and components has been steadily decreasing, the rising cost of labor has stabilized, the credit situation has improved, the enterprises have been relieved, and the financial investment such as structural stability has been gradually implemented. Slowly rising.
“But the companies that are mainly low-end products, overcapacity, and expansion in recent years have faced greater difficulties, and the annual profit growth rate can Whether to recover to double digits remains to be seen,” he reminded.
Imported low-growth exports have flattened. Due to the weak economy, industry imports have shown a low growth trend. The policy of encouraging imports has weakened the overall industry, but In some industries such as food safety and environmental protection monitoring, even if there are instruments available in China, some departments, including grassroots monitoring organizations, require a large number or even all of them to be equipped with imported instruments.
“This phenomenon of excessive pursuit of imports is more serious, and has attracted the attention of the National Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments. They are actively taking measures to guide them.” Qi Jiacheng said that it must be acknowledged that there are still some gaps in the life and reliability of products in some industries in China, and the concept of the application department has a gradual change process. Therefore, it is necessary to guide the manufacturing industry to continuously improve the quality level.
Exports are still down the same period last year, but the decline has been flattened, and double-digit growth has been maintained in the first half of the year. The association believes that there are four main reasons: there are many medium and low-end products, and the demand for rigid products is large; the developing countries in the export regions account for a large proportion; the cost performance and comprehensive competitiveness still have advantages; the export of medium and high-end products such as DCS and rail transit monitoring systems is growing.
The overall situation is tight. The differentiation of enterprises is obvious. In the interview, Yan Jiacheng said that the situation in the first half of this year has changed considerably compared with previous years.
Because of the high degree of correlation with steel, electricity, coal, chemicals, oil and other “double high” upstream industries, the rapid growth of the automatic instrument industry in the past year-on-year increase From 30% to 13%; scientific instruments such as analysis and testing still maintain an increase of more than 20%, which indicates that the demand for scientific and technological testing equipment for scientific and technological innovation is still strong, but the pattern of medium and high-end instruments mainly relying on imports has not changed; At the same time, it has a small proportion in the whole industry, but the growth of special instruments such as people’s livelihood, culture and education such as meteorology, oceanography, geological exploration, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, culture, education and medical treatment is also relatively fast.
With the gradual deepening of economic restructuring, the overall operation of the instrumentation industry is tight, and the business situation is clearly differentiated.
According to the preliminary understanding, the current production and sales situation is good, the growth rate may reach 20% or more of the enterprises accounted for about 10% to 15%; a small increase of 50% About 1/3 of the current negative growth area. With the “stable growth” measures in place, it is expected that the proportion of the first and second categories will gradually increase.
Zhai Jiacheng told reporters that enterprises with good conditions this year are generally enterprises with high technological content, good industrialization results and no serious capacity expansion, such as Zhejiang Zhongkong, Beijing Heli, Hangzhou Concent, Shanghai Haoyu Hengping, Shanghai Lanbao and other enterprises.
The common feature is that although the total demand for products has not increased significantly due to the macroeconomic impact, market share has been rising due to competitive advantage. For example, in the field of DCS, in the competition with many well-known foreign companies, Hollysys and Zhongkong may enter the top three. They mainly rely on technological progress and services to regain the market from foreign companies.
It is reported that due to the high-end products and the emphasis on modern enterprise management, the gross profit margin of leading products of some excellent enterprises exceeds 50%, and the net profit of enterprises is more than 15%. Service integration, software and other services accounted for 35%.
High-end export growth continued to be sluggish. According to Qi Jiacheng, unlike 2008, many companies expanded their exports this year to compensate for the increase in domestic demand. Decline, such as the electricity meter industry. The industry has exported 14.54 million units from January to June, an increase of 40.39%, and the export value is 295 million US dollars, an increase of 43.7%. It is expected that the annual export will reach more than 25 million units, exceeding 500 million US dollars for the first time.
At the same time, the gas meter industry, which has been negatively growing for two consecutive years, has also turned positive this year, reaching double-digit growth; The optical component industry, where the camera and camera markets are weak and exports are declining, has recently seized the momentum of global mobile phone sales. Currently, 80% of the world’s mobile phone lenses are produced in China, and optical components have been exported 12.58 million from January to June. The amount of 880 million US dollars, an increase of 33.6%.
In fact, not only the traditional export products are growing, but also the export of high-end products is vigorously expanding.
On March 20 this year, Beijing Hollysys signed a contract with the Hong Kong Railway Company to provide all the ground and vehicle for the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed rail (Hong Kong section). Signal system, the contract amount is 490 million Hong Kong dollars; followed by April and May, Zhejiang Zhongkong has undertaken two petrochemical projects in the two countries in the Middle East, and plans to adopt the Chinese control system to MAV mode assembly, the amount is about 400 million and 3 100 million yuan.
“The above situation shows that although the global economy is weak and export growth is difficult, there is still potential to be tapped, and research should be subdivided to support promotion.” To sum up.
Compared with the rapid rise of domestic enterprises, “three-capital” enterprises are continuing to slump. According to reports, from January to June, its production and sales growth rate was only 5.23%, 4.65%, 12 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the whole industry. The profit growth rate has been negative now, and the loss-making enterprises have exceeded 30%. In the first half of this year alone, the production and sales of “three-capital” enterprises fell by 3 percentage points in the whole industry after falling for four consecutive years.
The downturn of “three-capital” enterprises has become an important reason why the industry is unlikely to recover to 20% year-on-year growth. Qi Jiacheng told reporters that although some “three-capital” enterprises have begun to adjust their structure to adapt to the changes in China’s automation market, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse their decline.
Post time: Aug-13-2018